Energy Prices and Ukraine: What the Treasury Secretary Got Right, and Wrong

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on Fox & Friends this week and made a striking claim: that Ukraine, a nation defending itself against a brutal Russian invasion, bears partial responsibility for the "energy shock" pushing up American prices.

That framing matters. It suggests a sovereign country fighting for its survival is partly to blame for your heating bill. The reality is more complicated, and the numbers tell a different story.

What Actually Happened to Energy Prices

Yes, energy prices spiked. But the causes are global and specific. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted oil and gas markets starting in early 2022, but those shocks have largely been absorbed by global markets. What's driven recent price volatility isn't Ukraine defending itself, it's Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions and broader market dynamics.

Bessent also claimed the Trump administration's trade war with Canada will have "virtually no impact on American prices." That's where his logic breaks down. Energy is one of the most price-sensitive commodities in the economy. Canada supplies about 15% of America's oil and a significant share of natural gas. Tariffs on Canadian energy would directly raise prices at the pump and for heating.

The Real Problem: Wages Haven't Kept Up

Here's what matters for people struggling with bills: this isn't really an energy crisis. It's an affordability crisis. Productivity has surged 92.4% since 1979, but wages have only risen 33.6%. When a gallon of gas costs more relative to your paycheck, when heating oil takes a bigger bite of your budget, when you're choosing between energy and other necessities, that's the real shock.

Blaming Ukraine for price pressures is a misdirection. The question is whether government policy makes things better or worse for working people. Tariffs that raise energy costs make it worse. Trade rules that actually protect American workers and communities, that prevent monopolies from controlling prices, those make it better.

Read the full reporting at The Hill.