Ukraine & NATO — Backing Democracy, Deterring Aggression

The US dedicated $188 billion to Ukraine aid from FY2022–2025 — less than 1% of total federal spending. Security assistance made up roughly $130.7 billion (71%) of that total. But the flow reversed dramatically: FY2025 allocated $3.92 billion, and FY2026 slashed that to $220 million as of February 2026 — a 44-fold reduction right as Russia's occupation entrenches.

Russia now controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, most of Luhansk and Donetsk, and portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Russian advances in 2025 averaged 70 meters per day near Pokrovsk despite extraordinary casualties. Ukraine has suffered 500,000–600,000 total military casualties (killed plus wounded), and over 15,000 civilians have been killed.

Civilian casualties in 2025 were 31% higher than 2024, driven by deliberate Russian strikes on energy infrastructure — a documented war crimes strategy targeting heating and electricity to break civilian will. Bucha, child deportation, energy-infrastructure attacks, and torture are all the subject of active ICC investigations.

At the start of 2025, the US supplied 20% of all military equipment Ukraine was using. Military analysts describe that 20% as 'the most lethal and important' — long-range precision strike systems, air defense, and intelligence integration European suppliers cannot yet match. The loss of that 20% is not a minor adjustment; it is strategically decisive.

For Ukrainians: sovereignty restored; internationally recognized borders defended; no forced cession of Crimea or Donbas; a path to NATO membership when criteria are met; reconstruction funded by frozen Russian assets; perpetrators of documented war crimes prosecuted through the ICC (Bucha, child deportation, energy infrastructure terrorism, torture).

For Europeans: NATO unity strengthened. The 5% defense spending trajectory by 2035 (Hague Summit commitment) provides integrated deterrence. Forward-deployed US capability stays credible and sustained. Russia cannot reconquer neighbors. Article 5 means something, enforceable regardless of which US administration is in office.

For Americans: cost is less than 1% of federal spending — under $20B/year — with roughly 70% flowing back to US defense contractors for stockpile replenishment with modern equipment. Taiwan deterrence is strengthened in parallel: territorial conquest credibly blocked in Europe means the same credibility applies in the Pacific.

For the rules-based international order: the same international law applies to Russia in Ukraine, to Hamas on October 7, and to every other actor. That consistency is the foundation of US credibility. Long-term security spending is lower when authoritarian powers believe their threats will fail.