Nuclear Weapons — Fewer, Safer, On a Path to Zero

The United States has never adopted a No First Use policy. The President holds sole, unchecked, legally unregulated authority to launch the entire arsenal. Under launch-on-warning posture, the decision window is approximately 10 minutes — based on sensor data that has produced false alarms. 61% of Americans are uncomfortable with this arrangement. The 1983 Petrov incident and 1995 Yeltsin activation were near-misses survived only by individual human judgment.

For the first time since 1972, no treaty limits either US or Russian arsenals. New START expired February 5, 2026 with no successor. Both sides are now legally free to increase their arsenals without limit. China has built approximately 350 new ICBM silos and DOD projects 1,000+ operational Chinese warheads by 2030. The conditions for a three-way arms race are now in place.

The Pentagon is spending $946 billion over 2025–2034 on full nuclear triad modernization — $95 billion per year, more than the entire federal contribution to K-12 education. The Sentinel ICBM breached the Nunn-McCurdy Act with an 81% cost overrun, from $78 billion to $140.9 billion. The Pentagon issued a 'no alternatives' finding to waive the breach rather than cancel the program — despite cancellation being endorsed by Secretaries Perry and Mattis, General Cartwright, and 716 scientists including 10 Nobel laureates.

The JCPOA extended Iran's nuclear breakout timeline to 12 months with the most comprehensive verification regime ever applied. Its abandonment compressed that timeline to under 2 weeks. North Korea has ~50 assembled warheads, fissile material for ~90 more, and is adding ~6 per year. Treaty architecture — the mechanism that actually kept both superpowers below catastrophe for 60 years — has been abandoned.

On Day 1, the 10-minute decision window disappears. Launch-on-warning posture — dependent on sensor data that has produced false alarms repeatedly — is eliminated through a shift to ride-out posture using submarines. No First Use becomes law, not presidential discretion. Presidential launch authority requires consensus of three senior officials, introducing deliberation into the most consequential decision in human history. The Doomsday Clock, at 85 seconds to midnight, begins measurable movement away from catastrophe.

In Years 2–5, the Sentinel ICBM is cancelled. Minuteman III retires at end of service life. Plutonium pit production at Savannah River — bogged in litigation, 10+ years from operational, projected $25B+ — is defunded entirely. New START successor negotiations begin immediately; a verified reduction framework is established. Iran JCPOA+ returns with updated verification, compressing breakout timeline back from 2 weeks toward 12 months. North Korea freeze framework operational with caps on fissile production and testing.

In Years 3–10, Hanford (Washington) cleanup accelerates — projected $364–589B through 2100+ with 65 square miles of contaminated groundwater now on a permanent DOE obligation. Runit Dome remediation in the Marshall Islands begins before rising seas wash nuclear waste into the Pacific. 500+ abandoned uranium mines on Navajo land are cleaned up as an environmental justice obligation. RECA is permanently reauthorized — Indigenous, Pacific Islander, and downwinder communities no longer re-litigate their right to compensation every few years.

Over the decade, $50 billion per year in redirected savings flows to healthcare, climate, education, and environmental cleanup. 2,056 nuclear tests killed an estimated 4 million people prematurely; those communities receive permanent acknowledgment and support. The arsenal continues shrinking toward a minimum deterrent of ~300 warheads. And the most dangerous instrument of the Cold War is finally being placed under the accountability framework a democracy demands.